WHEN GOLD, STATISTICS, AND DATA ANALYTICS CONVERGE…

Extreme Value Theory and Gold Price Extremes 1975–2025 Long Term 1 Evidence on Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall

Table of Contents

What happens when three minds from the International School of Finance | HfWU combine their expertise – one in wealth management, one in risk management, and one in data science?

In our current paper (Commodities, October 2025), we demonstrate:

Using methods such as block maxima and peaks-over-threshold, combined with GARCH filters and programming, we show:

Gold fluctuates more strongly – and more asymmetrically – than many models anticipate. Yet it is precisely these extremes that make it fascinating.

Results

The findings are not only compelling for researchers but also provide practical insights for investors and regulators seeking to understand the long-term perspective of markets.

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KNIFFS UND TRICKS VOM EIQF ALPHA ALLEIN REICHT NICHT – WARUM DIE RESIDUALE VARIANZ WICHTIG IST

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